Is there a trend in Canadian winter temperatures?

Annual temperature

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Temperatures from Canadian capital cities over the past 45 years

This data is derived from temperature records in 11 cities across Canada from 1961 to 2006. The linear trend shows a 1.4 C increase during this time period, which is consistent with global temperature increases over the last 50 years (1.3 C). During this period, there were ups and downs in temperature (for example, the 1960s experienced a period of cooling) both seasonally and from one decade to another, but overall the temperature is increasing.

Forecast of annual temperature

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Forecast of temperature increase in Canada over next 45 years

Based on the trend over the past 45 years of the 1.4 C temperature increase in Canada shown above, Environment Canada statistics show that average annual temperatures in Canada will jump from the present 4.4 C to approximately 6.5 C in 2051. This is within the prediction of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that forecast a 1.4 to 4 C increase by 2100. Within this range of increase, the IPCC predicts severe coastal damage in both Atlantic and Northern Canada, increased precipitation and flooding in Central and Western Canada, and an ecological shift of prairie habitat northward into the boreal forest, which in turn will expand into the tundra.

Winter temperature

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Average temperature data across the coldest months of the year (December to March) shows that winters have warmed 2.8 C on average from 1961 to 2006. This increase is greater than the annual Canadian average, correlating directly with observations made by Environment Canada that the greatest warming in the mid-latitude continents has been in the winter and spring.

Limitations

The Heat Island Effect, in which population growth and urban expansion increase a city's temperature, were not taken into account in these analyses.